asian/threeway conversion

[jwunderdog]

Does anyone have a formula they use to see which has better value? It seem like a couple of years ago someone posted it but can't find it.

Thanks

 

[quantumleap]

I usually put both bets in a spreadsheet and figure the difference.

 

[jwunderdog]

I assume you take the Draw % into play?

 

[quantumleap]

I assume you take the Draw % into play?

It depends on how you're going to bet. I do it on whether I want to bet a team not to lose vs. that team to win on the asian. For example, if I want to see the payoff of an asian bet I'll put the line for each in a cell and put in 0.5 units for each and calculate the payoff for a win, draw and loss. Then I'll put the line in for the draw and the win (3-way) in separate cells and calculate the payout of the win, draw and loss.

Am I understanding your question correctly?

 

[jwunderdog]

are you assuming the draw # given is the "real" probability of a Draw or do you remove some vig or makeup your own Draw probability?

 

[quantumleap]

are you assuming the draw # given is the "real" probability of a Draw or do you remove some vig or makeup your own Draw probability?

I use my own draw probability based upon the likelihood that I believe there will be a draw. If I'm thinking a team will most likely win but there's a chance for a draw I will put a low probability of draw. If I think a team (such as Inter Milan that has drawn most of their matches) will have a high probability of a draw then I put a higher probability in the spreadsheet and compare the profit/loss potential of the 3-way with the asian bet.

I could give you some examples the next time I come across this scenario.

 

[GameBreaker]

Damn it,
the content of this thread is not what I thought it would be as indicated by the Thread title :>Grin> :heh:

sorry couldnt resist.

 

[quantumleap]

Damn it,
the content of this thread is not what I thought it would be as indicated by the Thread title :>Grin> :heh:

sorry couldnt resist.

Do a google for "asian threeway" and I think you'll find what you want.

 

[GameBreaker]

Will do, Thanks!! :modemman: :lol:

 

[jwunderdog]

lol